Could ChatGPT save your life? How AI is about to create the future of health
Ok. It's official. Everyone has gone ChatGPT crazy, and with good reason; it's some pretty cool technology. Bill Gates himself recently said that it's the most impressive technology revolution he's seen since he first witnessed the Graphical User Interface - high praise from one of my favourite futurists. But here's the thing: despite all the hype, I think that we are massively underestimating the power of generative AI and how much it will impact not only our economy but also the future of human health.
Are we underestimating the potential of AI?
So you've probably seen loads of posts on social media raving about how great the new version of ChatGPT is. The proof for this is usually an example of where someone has used it to write an email, plan their travel itinerary or do their homework. Brilliant. Great. Is that really the grand potential of one of the biggest technology revolutions of our generation? I think not.
So in order to explore just how big the future could be, let's take a quick look into the past. Where have we seen a huge technology revolution in history that was initially underestimated?
SOURCE https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/why-the-industrial-revolution-didnt-happen-in-china/
Back in the industrial revolution, the landscape was littered with factories that formed the bulk of the economy. How were these factories powered? Well, we had someone shovelling coal that was burnt to create heat energy. The heat boiled water and created steam that was used to spin turbines. Finally, this kinetic energy was used to power machines that were operated by human shift workers. It all seems a little inefficient, but it was the best technology available at the time.
Then along came this amazing technology breakthrough called electricity. Did it revolutionise the way factories were operated overnight? Not really - at first electricity was simply used to replace the coal powered turbines, but the machines were still operated manually by humans who were slow, error prone and needed rest. It wasn't until quite some time later that someone realised this electricity could be used to power different kinds of machines that were autonomous, didn't require humans to operate and therefore were much faster, cheaper, more reliable and could be operated 24/7. More factories opened and production capacity increased exponentially which changed the face of the global economy.
The true impact of the technology breakthrough was only realised when electricity was plugged in at the source.
I feel much the same way when I see someone proudly boasting about how they used ChatGPT to help write an email. This feels like the equivalent of spinning turbines more efficiently. It's only going to be a matter of time until entire industries are upended when people figure out how to plug AI in at the source.
What does AI have to do with healthcare?
I mentioned Bill Gates earlier. In a recent issue of his Gates Notes newsletter, he has written what is probably the most interesting article to date on the potential of AI to impact the future of our world. Unsurprisingly, given the charitable work he does with his foundation, a lot of what he's spoken about is the ability for AI to benefit underprivileged societies, and the first industry he calls out directly is of course healthcare.
However, after giving a detailed breakdown of the importance of AI to help the underprivileged, he goes on to say something quite interesting:
Market forces won't naturally produce AI products and services that help the poorest. The opposite is more likely so.
What he's saying is that no one is going to take this brand new technology and immediately think of applying it to a charitable effect. It's probably going to filter down to people like you and me first.
As I always like to say: follow the money. Where is healthcare going to be disrupted by AI in a way where there's an economic opportunity to serve affluent customers?
SOURCE https://www.slideshare.net/sodaspeaks/the-soda-report-volume-1-2013#125
I hinted at the answer to this question in an article I wrote back in 2013. It was published in the annual SoDA Report called Winning at Life. The article was about how data collection is transforming our lives with the advent of wearable devices like smart phones, smart watches and fitness devices that can capture and track our personal analytics. The big question I raised in the article was this: what might be possible if we used this technology to not just map our run or gamify our shopping experience, but actually be used to optimise our health? Could technology help us live a healthier, happier, longer life?
How will the future of healthcare come about?
Our current day medical system is still based on a 200 year old model: I have a symptom like a cough, I go to see my doctor, I describe my symptoms, the doctor does a few tests and gives me a prescription for medication to walk away. Now if that cough is a symptom of a larger illness, chances are I'm already too late to easily treat it by the time my cough develops.
Today's healthcare system is ripe for disruption and AI is the perfect thing to do it.
The Future of Health will come about in three horizons.
The Past: 2010 - 2020
Horizon 1: Devices
Purpose: Data Collection
What is it? A way to collect your personal data continuously and ambiently without the need for data entry
Example: Smartwatches, Fitness trackers, Wearables and Apps that collect your personal data
Key Success Factor: Create Utility - give consumers an immediate use case for their personal data (eg. map their run, track their sleep, review travel history)
Key Players:
Tech Giants (eg. Apple, Samsung, Google)
Sports brands (eg. Nike, Adidas)
Fitness Devices (eg. Garmin, Fitbit, Oura)
Medical Diagnostic Tools (eg. Roche, Abbott)
State of Play:
After just over a decade of prominence, the devices market is already commoditised and fragmented. Those who can create better integration with existing mobile devices and combine this with deeper data collection will reduce the number of devices needed by consumers and therefore will win.
The Present: 2020 - 2030
Horizon 2: Platforms
Purpose: Data Consolidation
What is it? A way to multiply the usefulness of your personal data by linking multiple data sources all together in a meaningful way
Example: A unified dashboard of your fitness, dieting, productivity and social apps
Key Success Factor: Create Trust - giving consumers confidence that their personal data is private, while continuing to provide increased utility in return for data sharing
Key Players:
Governments
Blockchain platforms
Trusted Healthcare Brands
Genomics and Biotech companies (eg. 23andMe)
Tech Giants
State of Play:
Governments have begun eHealth initiatives globally but are moving too slowly. Tech players who are supplementing their capabilities with acquisitions and partnerships are building the necessary trust faster than healthcare brands are able to do alone. Regulators will be the major blocker for Tech Giants to monopolise this space. Blockchain will become a key enabler as markets become more comfortable with trust being distributed and decentralised.
The Future: 2030 Onward
Horizon 3: Services
Purpose: Data Application
What is it? A way to use the platform’s consolidated data to provide predictive diagnosis, treatments and other healthcare services
Example: Diagnostic analyst reviews your monthly data in order to identify health problems months or years before they occur and provide specific preventative recommendations and lifestyle changes that are personalised to the individual
Key Success Factor: Create Measurability - by giving consumers visible artefacts of how their health is improving over time as a result of the service
Key Players:
Insurance Companies
Pharmaceuticals
Private hospital and medical systems
Tech Giants
Startup ecosystem
State of Play:
Traditional players like insurers and pharmaceuticals are laggards and have lost their market advantage in the process of over-indexing on defence of their core business model. Tech players have the Customer Experience advantage and have an installed customer base of billions. In conjunction with startup acquisitions and partnerships, Tech Giants will build health capabilities quicker than healthcare firms can build data, digital and analytics capabilities.
Who will win the race to disrupt healthcare?
So if you can buy into this vision, the logical question is: who will the winners be?
I think this is one of those cases where there won't be one big winner, it's actually going to be an ecosystem of a variety of companies working in tandem in order to shift and transform the healthcare industry.
One thing is for sure - if any of these predictions come true and AI is actually able to help us live a happier, longer, healthier life, we're going to have many, many years to look back on this current point in time and think of how silly we were to think that ChatGPT was just this fun little toy to help us write an email.
